St. Thomas Real Estate Trends

Historically the Caribbean has been the target of "hurricane watch" that is until Katrina wreaked her havoc on the southern coast of America and devistated New Orleans.

While the storms of recent have changed the focus for many, those of us who live in the Caribbean still focus our thoughts on the predictions of the impending hurricane season.

As reported by the Virgin Islands Daily News:

Warming ocean temperatures in the Atlantic coupled with a diminished El Niño effect in the Pacific for the rest of 2007 led noted hurricane forecaster William Gray to increase the number and severity of hurricanes predicted to blow across the Atlantic Ocean in 2007 - and the likelihood that they will make landfall in the Caribbean.

Gray, forecaster Philip Klotzbach, and their forecasting team at the University of Colorado updated their extended-range forecast for the 2007 hurricane season on Tuesday, predicting 17 named storms. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes, and five are predicted to be intense. There is a 74 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall along the mainland United States, and an above average chance for major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean, they said.

"We have increased our forecast ... largely due to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions," the report said. "We are now calling for a very active hurricane season."

The report does not speak specifically to the Caribbean or the Virgin Islands, but indicates a greater likelihood of storms coming through the islands.

Gray's initial forecast, released in December, called for above average tropical storm activity, with 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Three of those were projected to become intense.

El Niño weather conditions, which cause abnormally warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific and wind shearing in the Atlantic, helped curb tropical hurricane activity in 2006. The forecast says that those conditions are likely to wane as hurricane season begins.

The end of El Niño conditions does not bode well for this hurricane season. Looking back to 1950, seven out of the eight hurricane seasons following El Niño were active, the report states. Many of those seasons displayed La Niño weather conditions - where ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. A report released in February by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated a possible transition to La Niño weather conditions. NOAA indicated that La Niño conditions often lead to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Although many of the most recent hurricane seasons have been on the active side, the report contends that global warming is not the most likely cause. The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were very active but not above normal variations in hurricane activity. Those seasons were especially destructive because so many storms hit the U.S. mainland - a function of upper air currents steering them there.

The report states that the Atlantic is going through a cycle that has produced increased hurricane activity.

"This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two, at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925," the report states.

Gray and Klotzbach will update their predictions again on May 31 - the day before the hurricane season officially begins.

As a long time island resident, I know that we have been very fortunate over the last ten years.  As June 1st approachs we will look for updates on the upcoming hurricane season.

Your personal thoughts and info are most welcome.